6장: 지지, 저항, 시장 격차

수업 학습 목표:

소개: Chapter 6 explores the fundamental concepts of 지지선과 저항선, their psychological significance, and the phenomena of role reversal, alongside an in-depth look at Market Gaps. Understanding these elements is essential for any trader looking to develop robust trading strategies. By identifying key levels of support and resistance, you can better predict price movements and make more informed decisions. Additionally, exploring market gaps provides insights into market sentiment and potential shifts, further enhancing your analytical toolkit.

  • Identify Support and Resistance Levels: Learn to recognize key price levels where the market may halt or reverse.
  • Understand the Psychological Significance: Explore how psychological factors and historical data influence these levels.
  • Navigate Role Reversals in Support and Resistance: Leverage insights from these phenomena to refine your trading decisions.
  • Decode the Significance of Market Gaps: Gain a comprehensive understanding of different types of market gaps and their implications for trading strategies.

수치: A vector illustration depicting the ‘Support and Resistance level’ price chart pattern, a key concept in technical analysis. This image illustrates a strong trend between two parallel level lines, representing stock, cryptocurrency graph, forex analytics, and trading market breakouts. It effectively visualizes the concept of market dynamics and critical points in trading strategies.

원천: 셔터스톡

소개

 

Support and Resistance are two fundamental concepts in technical analysis that act as the foundation for most trading strategies. In this chapter, we’ll explore how to identify these levels, the psychological significance they carry, and the interesting role-reversal phenomena that often occur at these price points.

A. Identifying Support and Resistance Levels

수치: A vector illustration showcasing the ‘Support and Resistance level chart pattern formation’, a fundamental concept in technical analysis. This image represents both bullish and bearish lines, indicating potential reversal or continuation trends. It is an essential tool for understanding stock, cryptocurrency graphs, forex, and trading market price movements.

원천: 셔터스톡

Support and Resistance levels are like invisible floors and ceilings that the price seems to bounce off of.

 

Support is a price level where demand is strong enough to prevent the price from falling further. It’s like a floor that the price bounces off.

Resistance is the opposite – a price level where supply overcomes demand, stopping the price from rising further. It’s like a ceiling that the price hits and bounces down from.

These levels are vital to traders as they can provide potential entry and exit points. We’ll show you how to spot them on a chart using various examples.

Figure: Understanding Resistance and Support Zones

원천: Altfins

설명: The image is a graphical representation of resistance and support zones in a financial market, likely a cryptocurrency or stock market chart. It shows a price chart with marked areas of resistance and support. Resistance zones are price levels where selling pressure is significant enough to prevent the price from rising further. Support zones are levels where buying interest is strong enough to stop the price from falling. The chart may illustrate how the price interacts with these zones, such as bouncing off support levels or retreating from resistance levels. It might also show a breakout, where the price moves decisively through a resistance or support zone, indicating a potential trend change.

주요 내용:

  • Resistance Zones: Areas where price struggles to rise further due to selling pressure.
  • Support Zones: Levels where price finds a floor due to buying interest.
  • Price Interaction: How the price reacts to these zones can indicate market sentiment.
  • Breakouts: A decisive move through a resistance or support zone can signal a trend change.

애플리케이션: For traders and investors, identifying support and resistance zones is crucial for making informed trading decisions. These zones can be used to set entry and exit points, stop-loss orders, and to gauge the strength of a trend. Understanding the concept of breakouts is also important, as it can indicate the start of a new trend or a significant continuation of the current trend. This knowledge is valuable in both short-term trading and long-term investment strategies, helping to manage risk and capitalize on market movements.

Figure title: Basic Concepts of Support and Resistance

원천: New Trader U

설명: The image is a simple illustration of the basic concepts of support and resistance in trading. Support and resistance are fundamental concepts in technical analysis, representing key levels on a chart where the price of an asset tends to find a floor (support) or ceiling (resistance). The image probably shows a price chart with horizontal lines indicating these levels. Support is typically where buying interest is strong enough to overcome selling pressure, preventing the price from falling further. Resistance is where selling pressure overcomes buying interest, stopping the price from rising higher. The chart may also depict how prices react when they approach these levels, such as bouncing off support or retreating from resistance.

주요 시사점:

  • Support Level: A price level where significant buying interest may prevent further price decline.
  • Resistance Level: A price level where significant selling pressure may prevent further price increase.
  • Price Reactions: The interaction of prices with these levels can indicate market sentiment and potential trend reversals.
  • Trading Strategy: Support and resistance levels are used to identify potential entry and exit points in trading.

애플리케이션: Understanding support and resistance is crucial for traders in any financial market, including stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies. These levels can help traders make decisions about where to enter and exit trades, set stop-loss orders, and identify potential trend reversals. Recognizing how prices behave around these levels can also provide insights into market psychology and future price movements. This knowledge is essential for both technical analysis and developing effective trading strategies.

B. Psychological Levels

Psychological levels are price levels that traders pay more attention to because they are significant in some way. Often, these are round numbers (e.g., 1.0000 in forex, 100 in stocks) or historical highs and lows. Traders are more likely to place orders around these levels, which can create strong support or resistance.

Figure: Forex Trading: Psychological Levels

출처: 맞춤형 인포그래픽

설명: This infographic focuses on the concept of ‘Psychological Levels’ in Forex trading. Psychological levels refer to price levels that are significant due to their round numbers, like 1.2800. These levels are often valued by traders because they are easy to remember and act as mental markers. As a result, these round numbers frequently become key support and resistance levels in trading. Understanding these levels can be crucial for traders, as they often indicate areas where price movements can pause or change direction.

Figure: Psychological Levels and Round Numbers in Trading

원천: DailyFX

설명: The image likely illustrates the concept of psychological levels and round numbers in trading. Psychological levels refer to price levels that are perceived as significant by market participants, often round numbers like 1.3000 in forex or 100 in stocks. These levels can act as support or resistance due to the collective market psychology. The chart probably shows how prices react when approaching these round numbers, such as bouncing off these levels or breaking through after several attempts. It may also highlight the importance of these levels in setting stop-loss orders or target prices.

주요 내용:

  • Psychological Levels: Round numbers that traders and investors often view as significant.
  • 지지선과 저항선: These levels can act as natural barriers, where price may stall or reverse.
  • Market Psychology: The significance of these levels is largely due to collective trader psychology and market behavior.
  • Trading Strategy: Psychological levels are used for planning entry and exit points, and for setting stop-losses and targets.

애플리케이션: For traders, understanding the impact of psychological levels is important for making informed trading decisions. These levels can be used to anticipate potential areas where price might pause or reverse, aiding in the identification of entry and exit points. Traders might place orders around these levels, expecting a reaction from the market. This concept is applicable in various markets, including forex, stocks, and commodities, and is a useful addition to a trader’s technical analysis toolkit. Recognizing the role of market psychology in these levels can also provide insights into market sentiment and potential price movements.

Figure title: Gold’s Psychological Levels in Trading

원천: Forex Central

설명: The image displays a chart of gold prices, highlighting the psychological levels significant to traders and investors. Psychological levels in trading are typically round numbers or significant historical points that attract attention and can act as support or resistance levels. In the context of gold, these could be round numbers like $1,200, $1,300, etc., or historically significant prices. The chart may show how the gold price reacts when it approaches these levels, either bouncing back or breaking through, and how these levels can influence trading decisions.

주요 내용:

  • Psychological Levels in Gold: Round numbers or significant historical prices that are closely watched by market participants.
  • 지지선과 저항선: These levels often act as barriers where the price might pause or reverse.
  • Influence on Trading Decisions: Traders may use these levels for setting entry, exit, stop-loss, and target orders.
  • Market Sentiment Indicator: Reactions to these levels can indicate broader market sentiment and potential future price movements.

애플리케이션: For traders in the gold market, understanding psychological levels is crucial for strategy development. These levels can be used to gauge market sentiment and to make predictions about future price movements. Traders might place trades around these levels, anticipating a reaction from the market. This concept is particularly relevant in markets like gold, where certain price levels have historical significance and can influence the decisions of a large number of traders. Recognizing these levels can help in making more informed trading decisions and in managing risk more effectively.

C. Role Reversal in Support and Resistance

One intriguing aspect of support and resistance is the phenomenon known as ‘role reversal’. This is when a broken resistance level turns into a new support level (and vice versa) when the price retests it. We’ll delve into this concept further and illustrate it using real-world chart examples.

Example of resistance becoming support

 

Figure title: Resistance Becomes Support in Trading

원천: 충실도

설명: The image illustrates the concept in technical analysis where previous resistance levels become support levels. This phenomenon occurs when the price of an asset breaks through a resistance level and that level then serves as a new support level in future trading. The chart probably shows a price graph where the price has broken through a resistance level, and after the breakout, the same level is tested as support. This is a common pattern in stock, forex, and other financial markets, reflecting a change in market sentiment and dynamics.

주요 내용:

  • Resistance to Support Transition: A key concept where a level that previously capped the price becomes a floor.
  • Breakout Significance: The initial breakout through resistance is a significant event, indicating a potential change in trend.
  • New Support Level: After breaking resistance, the new support level can provide buying opportunities.
  • Market Sentiment Shift: This pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.

애플리케이션: Understanding this concept is crucial for traders and investors as it helps in identifying potential entry points and areas for setting stop-loss orders. After a resistance level is broken, it can be watched closely for signs that it will hold as new support. If the price respects this new support level, it may indicate a strong upward trend, providing a good opportunity for long positions. Conversely, if the price falls back through this level, it might signal a false breakout or weakness in the market. This knowledge is valuable across various markets and can be a key component of a technical trader’s strategy.

Example of support becoming resistance

Figure title: Support Becomes Resistance in Trading

원천: 충실도

설명: The image demonstrates the technical analysis concept where a support level becomes a resistance level. This occurs in financial markets when the price of an asset breaks below a support level, and this level then acts as a new resistance in future trading. The chart probably shows a price graph where the price has broken below a support level, and after the breakdown, the same level is tested as resistance. This pattern is a common occurrence in stock, forex, and other financial markets and is indicative of a change in market sentiment and dynamics.

주요 내용:

  • Support to Resistance Transition: A fundamental concept where a level that previously supported the price becomes a ceiling.
  • Breakdown Significance: The initial breakdown through support is a significant event, indicating a potential change in trend.
  • New Resistance Level: After breaking support, the new resistance level can provide selling opportunities.
  • Market Sentiment Shift: This pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.

애플리케이션: Understanding this concept is essential for traders and investors as it helps in identifying potential exit points and areas for setting stop-loss orders. After a support level is broken, it can be monitored for signs that it will hold as new resistance. If the price respects this new resistance level, it may indicate a strong downward trend, providing a good opportunity for short positions. Conversely, if the price rises back through this level, it might signal a false breakdown or strength in the market. This knowledge is valuable across various markets and can be a crucial part of a technical trader’s strategy.

Figure: Understanding Price Action in Trading

 

출처: 맞춤형 인포그래픽

설명: This infographic provides insights into various aspects of price action in trading. It highlights key concepts such as ‘Rejection,’ ‘Breakout,’ and ‘Trendline.’ The chart illustrates how a market making a new higher high (HH) can signal an uptrend, while a market making a higher low (HL) can confirm a trade idea. It also shows a ‘Wick Rejection + Retest,’ indicating a potential reversal or confirmation of trend. The concept of ‘ABC Correction’ is depicted, followed by a ‘Lower Parallel’ indicating a potential next move. The infographic emphasizes the importance of recognizing strong bullish pressure, as indicated by the market consistently making higher highs and higher lows.

요약

 

Understanding support and resistance can significantly improve your technical analysis, whether you’re setting stop losses, determining profit targets, or seeking optimal entry and exit points. The ability to identify these levels, acknowledge the impact of psychological price points, and understand their role reversals, adds another powerful tool to your trading arsenal.

Let’s keep up this learning momentum! Onward, as we peel back the next layers of our technical analysis journey.

With these building blocks of support and resistance under our belt, we’re setting a solid foundation for your future as a confident trader. Ready to add more tools to your trading toolkit? Let’s press forward

D. Market Gaps - Understanding and Trading Them

Introduction to Market Gaps

 

In the financial markets, a gap is an area on a price chart where no trading occurs, creating a visible discontinuity between two price bars. Gaps are significant events that can provide insights into market sentiment and future price movements. This chapter will explore the nature of market gaps, why they occur, and strategies for trading them effectively.

What are Market Gaps?

  1. 정의: A market gap is a sharp break between prices on a chart, where no trading takes place. It is visually represented by a space between two consecutive bars or candlesticks.
  2. Types of Gaps:
    • Breakaway Gaps: Signal the start of a new trend.
    • Runaway (Continuation) Gaps: Indicate the continuation of an existing trend
    • Exhaustion Gaps: Occur at the end of a trend period
    • Common Gaps: Not associated with price patterns and often get filled quickly.

       

      Why Do Gaps Occur?

       

  1. Economic Data Releases: Sudden market movements in response to economic reports or news.
  2. Earnings Announcements: Corporate earnings reports can trigger rapid price changes
  3. Technical Breakouts: Gaps can occur when prices break through significant support or resistance levels.
  4. Market Sentiment: Shifts in market sentiment due to various global events or news.

    Trading Strategies for Market Gaps

     

  1. Gap Analysis
    • Analyze the type of gap and the market context in which it occurs.
    • Look for high volume during the gap, which signifies strength.
  2. Trading Breakaway Gaps:
    • Enter trades in the direction of the gap with confirmation from volume and other indicators.
    • Set stop losses just before the gap, as a return to this level may signify a false breakout.
  3. Trading Runaway Gaps:
    • Use these gaps to add to existing positions or enter new trades in the direction of the trend
    • Monitor volume and other momentum indicators for confirmation.
  4. Trading Exhaustion Gaps
    • Be cautious, as these gaps often signal the end of a trend
    • Look for reversal signals post-gap, like candlestick patterns indicating a change in direction.
  5. Fading the Gap:
    • In case of common gaps, consider ‘fading’ the gap, which involves trading in the opposite direction, expecting the gap to fill.


      Risk Management in Gap Trading

  1. Stop Loss Placement: Essential to mitigate risks, especially since gaps can indicate significant market moves.
  2. Position Sizing: Adjust position size considering the increased volatility associated with gaps
  3. Waiting for Confirmation: Before trading a gap, wait for additional confirmation signals to reduce the risk of false breakouts.

    Real-World Examples

  1. Stock Market Gap Trading: Illustrate with historical examples from stock markets where gaps provided significant trading opportunities
  2. Forex Market Gaps: Discuss weekend gaps in Forex, how they occur, and strategies to trade them.

The Psychology Behind Gaps

  1. Market Psychology: Gaps can provide insights into investor sentiment, whether it’s fear, greed, or euphoria.
  2. Interpreting Volume: High volume during a gap indicates stronger conviction, while low volume might suggest a lack of commitment to the new price level.

Conclusion: Bridging the Gap in Trading Knowledge

Market gaps are more than just anomalies; they’re important indicators of market sentiment and potential trend shifts. By understanding and strategically trading gaps, you can potentially capitalize on significant market moves. As with all trading strategies, gap trading requires practice, patience, and a keen eye for market trends and sentiment.

주요 수업 정보:

마무리 진술: Mastering the concepts of Support, Resistance, and Market Gaps provides you with crucial insights into market behavior, enabling you to decipher the market’s language with greater precision. These foundational aspects of technical analysis are indispensable for predicting future market movements and understanding the underlying psychology of market participants. Integrating these concepts with other analytical tools will enhance your trading strategies, allowing for more successful navigation of the financial markets.

  • Support and Resistance Levels offer insights into potential market reversals or continuations, serving as key indicators for entry and exit strategies.
  • Psychological Levels play a significant role in shaping market dynamics, acting as focal points for trader decisions.
  • Market Gaps provide valuable information on underlying market sentiment and potential directional shifts, offering strategic trading opportunities.
  • Role Reversal Phenomena between support and resistance levels can signal significant changes in market dynamics, providing critical cues for trading decisions.
  • Understanding and leveraging Market Gaps require a nuanced approach, including risk management strategies to navigate associated volatility effectively.
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