글로벌: 역사적 시장 붕괴와 그 국제적 영향

수업 학습 목표:

  1. 소개: This section delves into the profound impacts of historical market crashes on the global economy. By studying these events, you’ll grasp the interconnectedness of global markets and the ripple effects of financial turmoil.

  2. Understand the causes and global implications of major market crashes like the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Black Monday, and the Asian Financial Crisis. This knowledge equips you to better comprehend the vulnerabilities and resilience within financial systems.

  3. Recognize the phases of business cycles, including expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Learning these cycles will help you anticipate market changes and make informed economic and investment decisions.

  4. Analyze the effects of significant economic events on global markets, such as the Great Depression and the Dotcom Boom and Bust. Understanding these impacts aids in developing strategies to navigate market volatilities.

  5. Explore the historical growth patterns of the S&P Composite Index over a century, highlighting the influence of major economic events on stock market performance. This objective aims to develop your ability to analyze long-term market trends.

A. Historical Market Crashes and Their International Implications

Market crashes are not confined to one region; their effects are often felt globally, as interconnected economies experience ripple effects from financial turmoil in major markets. Here are some of the most significant global market crashes and their broader implications:

  1. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis: The 2008 financial crisis was a defining moment in modern economic history. It began in the United States, where the housing bubble burst, leading to the collapse of major financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers. The crisis quickly spread worldwide due to the interconnectedness of global financial markets. Stock markets across Europe and Asia suffered massive losses, and global trade plummeted.
    In Europe, the crisis exposed weaknesses in the financial systems of several countries, most notably in the form of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. Many European banks had significant exposure to U.S. mortgage-backed securities, leading to a sharp decline in bank lending and economic activity. The global crisis led to widespread unemployment and recessions, forcing central banks around the world, including the ECB, to implement extraordinary monetary policies, such as lowering interest rates to near zero and launching quantitative easing programs.

  2. Black Monday (1987): Black Monday, October 19, 1987, saw stock markets around the world crash in a single day. The U.S. market dropped by 22%, with similar declines seen in other regions, including Europe and Asia. The crash was triggered by a combination of factors, including computer trading algorithms, overvaluation, and investor panic. In the aftermath, regulators worldwide introduced measures like circuit breakers to prevent future crashes from snowballing.
    While the global economy rebounded relatively quickly, Black Monday highlighted the growing influence of computerized trading on global markets and the need for more robust financial regulation.
  3. Asian Financial Crisis (1997): While this crisis originated in Thailand due to the collapse of its currency (the baht), its effects were felt across the globe. As investors lost confidence, currencies and stock markets across Southeast Asia—including Malaysia, Indonesia, 그리고 South Korea—experienced massive selloffs. The crisis led to recessions in these countries and required international intervention from institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the affected economies.
    Though centered in Asia, the crisis impacted global trade and investment, as multinational corporations and investors in Europe and North America scaled back their operations in the region. The ripple effects underscored the interconnected nature of the global economy, where regional crises can have far-reaching consequences.

  4. The Great Depression (1929–1939): The 1929년 월스트리트 붕괴 marked the beginning of the Great Depression, a decade-long economic downturn that had severe global repercussions. The U.S. stock market collapse led to a banking crisis, mass unemployment, and a sharp contraction in global trade. Countries worldwide were affected, with Europe experiencing high unemployment and industrial decline. Germany, still recovering from World War I, was particularly hard hit, leading to political unrest and the rise of extremism.
    In response, governments around the world introduced protective tariffs and reduced international trade, further deepening the global recession. The aftermath of the Great Depression reshaped global economic policies, leading to the creation of new financial institutions like the World Bank 그리고 IMF to prevent future global economic crises.

B. Four Major Global Historical Business Cycles

  1. The Great Depression (1929–1939): The Great Depression was the longest and most severe economic downturn in modern history, originating in the United States after the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and spreading worldwide. Global GDP contracted sharply, unemployment rates soared, and industrial production plummeted. The economic hardships led to profound changes in government policies and the establishment of financial safety nets such as social security programs and labor protections in many countries
    .
    • 확장 단계: The 1920s, known as the “Roaring Twenties,” was a period of economic expansion with booming stock markets, rising consumer spending, and industrial growth.
    • 피크 단계: The peak occurred in 1929, marked by speculative excesses in the stock market and an unsustainable credit boom.
    • Contraction Phase: The stock market crash in October 1929 triggered a global economic contraction. Bank failures, deflation, and mass unemployment followed.
    • Trough Phase: Recovery began in the late 1930s with the onset of World War II, which spurred industrial production and employment, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.

  2. The Post-War Economic Boom (1950s–1960s): After World War II, the global economy entered a period of sustained growth, known as the Post-War Economic Boom or the “Golden Age of Capitalism.” This cycle was characterized by rapid industrialization, technological advancements, and the rise of consumer culture in countries such as the U.S., Japan, and much of Western Europe. The boom was supported by reconstruction efforts, particularly in Europe, and economic reforms in Japan.

    • 확장 단계: Global economic output grew rapidly, fueled by infrastructure rebuilding, technological progress, and growing international trade.
    • 피크 단계: The peak occurred in the late 1960s when global economic growth began to slow, partly due to rising inflation and geopolitical tensions.
    • Contraction Phase: The contraction began in the 1970s with the onset of stagflation caused by the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. Inflation spiked while economic growth stagnated, particularly in the U.S. and Europe.
    • Trough Phase: The trough of this cycle occurred in the early 1980s, after the second oil shock, when global central banks implemented tight monetary policies to bring down inflation.

  3. The Dotcom Boom and Bust (1990s–2000s): The rise of the internet and digital technologies in the 1990s led to the Dotcom Boom, a period of rapid growth in tech stocks and speculative investments in internet-based companies. However, the bubble burst in 2000, leading to the Dotcom Crash, with many tech companies going bankrupt and stock markets, particularly the NASDAQ, losing a significant portion of their value.

    • 확장 단계: The 1990s saw rapid technological innovation and investment in internet-based companies. Stock markets, particularly in the U.S., reached unprecedented heights.
    • 피크 단계: The peak occurred in early 2000, as tech company valuations became unsustainable, and investors began to sell off overvalued stocks.
    • Contraction Phase: The contraction took place over the next few years, with the NASDAQ losing nearly 80% of its value, and many tech companies going under. The crash led to a global recession.
    • Trough Phase: The recovery began in the mid-2000s, as the global economy stabilized and new, more sustainable tech companies emerged.

  4. The Global Financial Crisis (2008–2009): Triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent failure of financial institutions like Lehman Brothers, the 2008 financial crisis caused a global economic recession. Stock markets plummeted, unemployment soared, and governments worldwide implemented emergency measures to stabilize their economies.

    • 확장 단계: Leading up to the crisis, global economies experienced strong growth, driven by a housing boom, easy credit, and financial innovation.
    • 피크 단계: The peak occurred in 2007 when housing prices in the U.S. reached unsustainable levels. Warning signs began to appear as default rates on subprime mortgages rose.
    • Contraction Phase: The crisis hit full force in 2008, with financial institutions failing, global stock markets crashing, and economies shrinking. Governments and central banks intervened with stimulus measures to prevent further collapse.
    • Trough Phase: Recovery began in 2009, driven by large-scale monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and the gradual stabilization of global financial systems.

 수치: Stock Market Since 1900

 설명:

 

The figure shows the S&P Composite Index growth over time from 1900 to 2010, illustrating key events and major economic cycles. The index is plotted on a logarithmic scale to emphasize long-term growth patterns. Historical events like the Great Depression, World War II, the oil shocks of the 1970s, the dotcom boom, 그리고 global financial crisis of 2008 are highlighted to show how they impacted the stock market.

 

 주요 시사점:

 

  • 그만큼 S&P Composite Index has shown long-term growth despite periods of significant downturns, such as the Great Depression 그리고 financial crises.
  • Major economic events, including wars, recessions, 그리고 booms, have influenced market performance.
  • Historical patterns reveal how global crises can cause sharp declines, followed by eventual recovery and growth.
  • The index’s logarithmic scale demonstrates exponential growth over a century.

 

 정보의 응용: 

 

Understanding long-term trends in the S&P Composite Index helps investors recognize how economic cycles and major events can affect stock market performance. This knowledge is useful for predicting potential future market behavior, making more informed 투자 결정, and developing long-term investment strategies.

 

주요 수업 정보:

  1. 소개: This section delves into the profound impacts of historical market crashes on the global economy. By studying these events, you’ll grasp the interconnectedness of global markets and the ripple effects of financial turmoil.

  2. Understand the causes and global implications of major market crashes like the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Black Monday, and the Asian Financial Crisis. This knowledge equips you to better comprehend the vulnerabilities and resilience within financial systems.
  3. Recognize the phases of business cycles, including expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. Learning these cycles will help you anticipate market changes and make informed economic and investment decisions.

  4. Analyze the effects of significant economic events on global markets, such as the Great Depression and the Dotcom Boom and Bust. Understanding these impacts aids in developing strategies to navigate market volatilities.

  5. Explore the historical growth patterns of the S&P Composite Index over a century, highlighting the influence of major economic events on stock market performance. This objective aims to develop your ability to analyze long-term market trends.

마무리 진술:

Understanding historical market crashes and business cycles is crucial for developing robust economic and investment strategies. This knowledge enables you to anticipate potential market downturns and identify opportunities for growth during various phases of economic cycles.

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