Global: Introdução aos Ciclos de Negócios e Classes de Ativos
Objetivos de aprendizagem da lição:
- Understand the global business cycle: Learn how international factors such as trade flows e preços de commodities influence the global business cycle and its phases.
- Identify impacts on various asset classes: Gain insights into how stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, e mercadorias react differently during each phase of the global business cycle.
- Analyze the influence of central banks: Explore how policies from central banks around the world, like the Federal Reserve e a ECB, affect global markets and asset performances.
- Apply global market strategies: Develop strategies to optimize investment portfolios by understanding and leveraging the effects of global economic activities on asset classes.
A. Introduction to Business Cycles and Asset Classes
Globally, the business cycle follows similar stages, but international factors such as global interest rates, trade flows, e preços de commodities also play a critical role. The performance of asset classes—ações, títulos, dinheiro, imobiliária, e mercadorias—varies depending on these phases and regional economic conditions. Investors need to consider how global factors like central bank policies and international trade influence these asset classes.
Figura: Economic Cycle and Market Performance
Descrição:
A figura ilustra o ciclo econômico and its four phases: Recovery, Expansion, Slowdown, and Contraction. It highlights how real GDP fluctuates over time, showing the relationship between economic activity and market behavior. During each phase, different asset classes—stocks, bonds, and commodities—react in varying ways, reflecting market trends in response to economic changes.
Principais vantagens:
- Recuperação is characterized by rising confidence, low inflation, and healthy growth, with stocks and bonds generally increasing.
- Expansão indicates a boom mentality, rising inflation, and restrictive policies, often leading to stocks peaking and bonds falling.
- Desacelerar shows confidence dropping, inflation peaking, and production falling, causing stocks to fall and bonds to recover.
- Contração involves weak confidence, falling inflation, and stimulative policies, with stocks declining and bonds rising.
Aplicação de informações:
Entendendo o ciclo econômico helps investors anticipate market behavior and adjust their strategies accordingly. By knowing which assets perform best during each phase, investors can optimize their portfolios to align with economic conditions, improving potential returns and managing risks.
B. Stocks, Bonds, and Cash: A Primer
Globally, these three asset classes respond differently across business cycles:
- Ações: Stock performance is typically strong during expansion phases, with tecnologia e consumo discricionário sectors driving growth. However, global stocks are volatile during contractions.
- Títulos: Government bonds, especially U.S. Treasuries, provide safety during recessions, while high-yield corporate bonds perform better during expansions as credit risks decrease.
- Dinheiro: Cash becomes an attractive asset in global markets during recessions when investors seek safety and liquidity amid uncertainty in stocks and bonds.
Figura: Desempenho do mercado de ações e da economia
Descrição:
A figura ilustra a relação entre o ciclo econômico e a ciclo do mercado de ações. Ele descreve os diferentes estágios de cada ciclo, incluindo fases como Touro precoce, Touro do Meio, Touro Tardio, Urso da Manhã, e Recessão intermediária. Setores-chave como Energia, Serviços de utilidade pública, e Assistência médica estão alinhadas com fases específicas, indicando seu desempenho durante as transições econômicas.
Principais vantagens:
- O ciclo econômico e ciclo do mercado de ações Possuem fases distintas, mas interconectadas.
- Setores como Transporte e Finanças ter bom desempenho no touro precoce fase, enquanto Serviços de utilidade pública se destacar no pico.
- Indústrias básicas e bens de capital ter um melhor desempenho no touro do meio fase, alinhando-se com a recuperação econômica.
- Metais preciosos e energia geralmente atingem o pico durante o touro tardio fase.
- Assistência médica e Bens de consumo não cíclicos oferecer estabilidade durante recessões.
Aplicação de informações:
Compreender a correlação entre o ciclo econômico e desempenho do mercado de ações Pode ajudar os investidores a tomar decisões informadas sobre a alocação setorial com base nas fases econômicas. Ao alinhar os investimentos com fases como recuperação ou recessão, os usuários podem otimizar os retornos e gerenciar o risco de forma eficaz. Essa abordagem auxilia em diversificação estratégica de portfólio em diferentes condições econômicas.
C. Early Expansion Phase
In global markets, the early expansion phase is marked by recovery from recession:
- Ações: Global stocks surge, with companies in emerging markets often leading the way as they experience rapid recovery.
- Títulos: High-yield bonds perform well globally as investors regain confidence and seek higher returns.
- Dinheiro: Cash positions are reduced as investors move into riskier assets for growth.
D. Mid Expansion Phase
Globally, mid expansion sees more stable but slower growth:
- Ações: Global equity markets continue to perform well, but the focus shifts to industrial e financial sectors as growth moderates.
- Títulos: Bond performance weakens, especially títulos do governo, as interest rates rise globally.
- Dinheiro: Cash positions remain low as growth expectations persist.
E. Late Expansion Phase
Globally, the late expansion phase is characterized by high volatility:
- Ações: Investors shift to defensive sectors globally, such as bens de consumo essenciais e assistência médica.
- Títulos: Safe-haven bonds, like U.S. Treasuries, gain popularity as inflation pressures mount.
- Dinheiro: Cash and equivalents become more desirable as recession fears grow.
F. Recession
Globally, recessions impact all asset classes:
- Ações: Global stock markets decline, with emerging markets often suffering the most severe losses.
- Títulos: Títulos do governo provide a safe haven, while títulos corporativos face risks of default.
- Dinheiro: Cash is highly favored as it protects against further losses.
Figura: Top Performing Asset Classes During a Recession
Descrição:
The figure compares the performance of various asset classes during a recession, showing their average return percentages. Asset classes include agricultural commodities, art, imóveis residenciais, ouro, whisky, farmland, wine, sports cards, títulos, platinum, óleo, S&P 500, e Bitcoin. The chart reveals that while some assets have positive returns during economic downturns, others experience negative returns, with Bitcoin showing the largest decline.
Principais vantagens:
- Agricultural commodities, art, e imóveis residenciais have positive returns during recessions.
- Ouro, whisky, e farmland also maintain a positive return trend, indicating resilience in uncertain times.
- Bitcoin, S&P 500, e óleo are among the worst performers, showing negative returns during recessions.
- The data suggests that tangible assets como farmland e mercadorias may offer better estabilidade during economic downturns.
Aplicação de informações:
Understanding which asset classes perform well during recessions can help investors diversify their portfolios. By including more recession-resistant assets, investors can minimize potential losses and enhance portfolio stability in turbulent economic times.
G. Real Estate and Commodities: An Overview
Globally, real estate and commodities follow similar trends, but with additional factors like global demand e geopolitical tensions affecting performance:
- Imobiliária: Global real estate markets thrive in early and mid-expansion phases, driven by low interest rates and rising demand.
- MercadoriasMercadorias como óleo e metals perform well during global expansions, while ouro is a safe-haven asset during recessions.
Figura: Real Estate Index vs. Qatar Stock Exchange Index
Descrição:
The figure consists of two line charts that depict the performance of the Real Estate Index (left) and the Qatar Stock Exchange Index (right) from 2006 to 2020. The Real Estate Index shows a steady rise until 2015, after which it experiences a decline. The Qatar Stock Exchange Index demonstrates a more volatile pattern, with significant peaks and troughs over the same period, indicating fluctuations in the stock market.
Principais vantagens:
- O Real Estate Index showed consistent growth until 2015 but began declining afterward, reflecting potential changes in the real estate market.
- O Qatar Stock Exchange Index experienced more volatility, with sharp rises and falls, indicating higher sensitivity to market conditions and economic events.
- Imobiliária appears to have had more stable growth compared to the mercado de ações, although both indexes experienced downturns after 2015.
Aplicação de informações:
Investors can use these charts to understand the historical performance of imobiliária versus the mercado de ações in Qatar. The data can help inform decisions about diversificação de portfólio, especially in contexts where volatilidade do mercado is a concern. It also highlights the potential benefits of including imobiliária as a stabilizing asset in a broader investment strategy.
H. Real Estate Across Business Cycle Stages
- Expansão Inicial: Global real estate markets recover as economic growth resumes.
- Expansão Média: Strong performance, especially in emerging markets, where urbanization drives demand.
- Expansão Tardia: Real estate becomes riskier as borrowing costs rise.
- Recessão: Property values fall as demand decreases and financing becomes harder to obtain.
Figura: Global Real Estate Market: Size, by Resolution, 2023-2033 (USD Billion)
Descrição:
The stacked bar chart represents the projected size of the global real estate market from 2023 to 2033, categorized by different sectors: Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Land, and Others. The market shows consistent growth over the years, increasing from $6,281 billion in 2023 to a forecasted size of $10,038 billion in 2033. The chart also highlights a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over the forecast period.
Principais vantagens:
- O global real estate market is projected to grow steadily from 2023 to 2033, reaching $10,038 billion.
- O residential sector consistently holds the largest share, followed by comercial e industrial sectors.
- The market’s CAGR is anticipated to be 4.8% over the forecast period, indicating stable growth.
- The sectoral distribution remains relatively consistent throughout the years, suggesting balanced growth across different real estate sectors.
Aplicação de informações:
Esses dados ajudam os investidores a entender o growth potential in the global real estate market. It emphasizes the importance of diversifying investments across different real estate sectors, considering the consistent growth forecasted. Real estate investors can use this projection to plan long-term strategies, targeting sectors like residential e comercial, which hold significant shares of the overall market.
I. Commodities Across Business Cycle Stages
- Expansão Inicial: Commodities start to recover, driven by rising global demand for raw materials.
- Expansão Média: Commodities benefit from increasing industrial and consumer demand.
- Expansão TardiaMercadorias como ouro become attractive due to rising inflation and uncertainty.
- Recessão: Commodity prices, except for gold, typically decline as global demand weaken
Figura: Real Commodity Prices (USD-based) vs. Real US Interest Rate: 1970-2021
Descrição:
The chart illustrates the relationship between real commodity prices (USD-based, in red) and the real US interest rate (in blue) over the period from 1970 to 2021. The red line represents the commodity real price index, while the blue line shows the US3M1_GAP, which reflects the real US interest rate. The two variables often move in opposite directions, demonstrating an inverse relationship between commodity prices and real interest rates over time.
Principais vantagens:
- Real commodity prices e real US interest rates tend to move inversely, suggesting that when interest rates increase, commodity prices often decrease, and vice versa.
- Periods of high real interest rates, such as during the early 1980s and early 2000s, correspond with lower preços de commodities.
- Conversely, lower real interest rates, such as in the mid-1970s and early 2010s, often coincide with higher preços de commodities.
- This relationship highlights the impact of monetary policy on commodity markets, making it crucial for investors to consider interest rate trends when analyzing commodity prices.
Aplicação de informações:
Entendendo o inverse relationship entre real commodity prices e real interest rates is critical for commodity investors and traders. This chart demonstrates how shifts in política monetária can affect commodity prices, enabling investors to anticipate price movements based on changes in interest rates. For example, a declining interest rate environment may signal potential upward movement in preços de commodities, offering insights for strategic investment decisions in commodity markets.
Conclusão
Understanding how asset classes perform across different stages of the business cycle is essential for investors looking to maximize returns and minimize risks. Whether focusing on local European markets or global trends, aligning investment strategies with the business cycle allows for better portfolio management and informed decision-making. Diversification across ações, títulos, cash, imobiliária, e mercadorias helps investors manage risk throughout the different phases of the business cycle. By recognizing how each asset class responds to economic conditions, investors can make more informed decisions, positioning themselves to take advantage of opportunities in expansion phases and protecting their portfolios during contractions and recessions.
Principais informações da lição:
- Business cycles are globally interconnected: Recognize how phases like recuperação e contração in the global business cycle affect asset classes differently, influencing investment decisions.
- Central bank policies are pivotal: Policies set by central banks significantly impact global asset classes, highlighting the importance of staying informed on global economic policies.
- Diversification on a global scale is beneficial: Diversifying investments across various global asset classes can help mitigate risks and exploit growth opportunities during different economic phases.
- Strategic asset allocation is key: Aligning investment choices with the stages of the global business cycle can lead to optimized portfolio performance and better risk management.
Declaração de encerramento:
Understanding the complexities of the global business cycle and its impact on various asset classes is crucial for investors to make informed decisions, enhancing their ability to manage risks and capitalize on opportunities in the international market.
PT 
EN 
SW 
ML 
AR 
ZH 
ES 
EL 
ES_ES 
FR 
HI 
IT 
JA 
KO 
PT_PT 
PL 
DE 
LT 
UK 
KA 
DE_AT 
NB 
NN