全球：影响商业周期的全球宏观经济因素介绍

Global: Business Cycle Phases and Macroeconomic Indicators

这 global business cycle, like national and regional cycles, follows the phases of expansion, peak, contraction， 和 槽, but on a much larger scale. These cycles are influenced by macroeconomic factors that span across continents and are affected by the interplay of economies worldwide. Here’s a deeper look at how each phase unfolds and the key indicators that signal their onset.

1. 扩展阶段:
   

During the global expansion phase, economies around the world experience growth. This is marked by rising global GDP, increased consumer spending, job creation, and rising levels of production. Expansion is fueled by a combination of low 利率, technological innovation, and strong international trade relations. Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (U.S.), the European Central Bank (ECB)，以及 People’s Bank of China, tend to keep interest rates low during this phase to encourage borrowing and investment.

Key indicators of global expansion include:

• Global GDP Growth: Rising global GDP is a primary sign of global expansion, often driven by growth in major economies like the U.S., China, and the Eurozone.
• Employment Growth: As companies expand production, global unemployment rates fall. This phase typically sees higher job creation across industries.
• Commodity Prices: Demand for raw materials, such as oil, copper, and agricultural products, increases, driving up commodity prices. This is often a reflection of expanding manufacturing activity and consumer demand.

For example, the global expansion phase after the 2008 financial crisis saw increased investment in emerging markets like India and Brazil, along with significant technological advances that spurred growth worldwide.

2. Peak Phase:

The global peak occurs when economies reach the height of their growth. During this phase, economic indicators may show signs of overheating, such as high inflation rates and labor markets nearing full employment. Global central banks may raise interest rates to slow down economic activity and prevent inflation from spiraling out of control. This period is also characterized by high commodity prices, driven by strong demand.

Indicators signaling the peak of the global business cycle include:

• Rising Inflation: As economies grow, increased demand for goods and services can push inflation beyond the target rates set by central banks.
• Tight Labor Markets: Global unemployment rates are at their lowest during this phase, leading to upward pressure on wages as employers compete for labor.
• Interest Rate Increases: Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB, may raise interest rates to control inflation and moderate the pace of economic growth.

The global peak of the mid-2000s, for instance, was characterized by rapidly rising asset prices, especially in housing and commodities, before the eventual slowdown.

3. Contraction Phase:

Global contraction occurs when economic activity begins to slow. This is often triggered by rising interest rates, declining demand, or external shocks such as geopolitical tensions or trade wars. During this phase, global 国内生产总值增长 slows or contracts, unemployment rises, and both consumer spending and investment decrease. For commodity-exporting nations, declining commodity prices can worsen the contraction, as global demand for raw materials wanes.

Indicators of a global contraction include:

• Declining Global GDP: As consumer and business spending slow, global GDP growth decelerates or turns negative.
• Rising Unemployment: Companies begin to lay off workers or freeze hiring, leading to higher unemployment across major economies.
• Falling Commodity Prices: Reduced demand for commodities leads to price declines in oil, metals, and other raw materials, impacting both producer and consumer countries.

The contraction phase can be exacerbated by external shocks, such as the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, which led to widespread business shutdowns, reduced global trade, and a sharp contraction in GDP.

4. Trough Phase:

At the global trough, economic activity bottoms out. Global GDP may be stagnant or shrinking, unemployment is high, and central banks typically reduce interest rates to stimulate economic recovery. This phase often sees quantitative easing or other extraordinary monetary measures implemented by central banks to increase liquidity and encourage borrowing and investment.

Key indicators of the trough include:

• Low Interest Rates: Central banks reduce interest rates, sometimes to near-zero levels, to stimulate borrowing and encourage businesses to invest.
• Quantitative Easing: In an attempt to revive growth, central banks may inject money into the economy by purchasing bonds and other financial assets, increasing liquidity.
• Weak Consumer Confidence: Global consumer confidence tends to be at its lowest during the trough, reflecting high levels of uncertainty about the future.
• Rising Public Debt: Governments often increase spending during the trough to stimulate demand, leading to higher public debt levels.

The global economy typically emerges from the trough through coordinated efforts by governments and central banks, such as the joint stimulus measures seen after the 2008 financial crisis and the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic.